A prominent risk management firm has issued its predictions for the top five risks for business in 2025, along with guidance for how organizations should prepare and respond.

In a report, Control Risks predicted that those top five risks are:

• Actions by the incoming Trump administration that will “intensify U.S. domestic and foreign policy risks to international business in 2025.”
• A global trade war between China and the U.S. that will negatively impact international trade.
• Rising political violence that will lead to “diverse and more unpredictable threats” around the world.
• Attacks on digital infrastructure that could cause worldwide outages and disruptions.
• Geopolitical “red lines” being crossed by Russia in Ukraine, by Israel in the Middle East, and by China in Taiwan, and what crossing them means for businesses’ risk calculations.

“In 2025, global risks to business will be driven by power vacuums and polarization, conflict and political violence, and the double-edged sword of technological advancement,” said Claudine Fry, partner at Control Risks, in a video summary of the report.

Control Risks predicted that American global power will continue to decline under President Donald Trump. As Trump pulls back U.S. troops and disengages from long-established U.S. security commitments, U.S. partners and foes will have to deal with more uncertainty. Rapid changes in the U.S. regulatory environment will create an “increasingly complex investment climate,” according to the report’s page on U.S. uncertainty.